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No Deal more Popular than May’s Deal, But UK Now Wants To Remain!
As the Brexit chaos continues, and local elections deliver shock results for both the Conservatives and Labour party, do you wonder how the public would they vote if there was another referendum?

61% now want to remain

We asked Brits through our YouGov survey how they would vote if given the choice now of remaining in the EU or leaving on the terms set out in Theresa May’s deal. Of the people who confirmed they would vote, and currently have a preference, 61% stated they wanted the UK to remain in the EU.

This result isn’t surprising when seen alongside the shock losses that both the main parties have faced in recent local elections. With the Liberal Democrats positioning themselves as the party fighting for an ‘Exit from Brexit’, their success at the polls would suggest that the public have had enough of the current mess. Something which is clearly reflected in our survey data.

People prefer no deal to Theresa May’s deal

Confidence in the Government appears to have slipped to an all-time low, as they continue to fail to find a way to resolve the current impasse. In light of this, our YouGov survey asked the public whether they would rather remain in the EU, accept Theresa May’s deal or exit the EU with no deal. 

Given these choices

  • 53% who confirmed they would vote, and currently have a preference, confirmed they would prefer to remain. 

But surprisingly

  • Nearly 3 times as many people confirmed they would vote for a no deal exit (34%) rather than accept the terms negotiated by the Government (12%). 

Clearly people are looking for an end to the matter but would prefer taking the drastic step of leaving the EU without a negotiated deal rather than accept the compromise of the current deal on the table.

Why is Theresa May’s deal so unpopular?

It seems clear from this result that the majority of people don’t have confidence in the Government to negotiate the right deal for the UK and don’t believe that the deal that’s currently on the table is the best way to go.  The fact that 3 times as many people would support leaving the EU with no deal, despite all the financial warnings of the effect that this could have on the economy, is a very clear indicator that Brits have lost trust in the whole process.

What’s changed since the 2016 Referendum?

In a separate opinion poll, we asked members of the public for their views on why they think people may change their vote if a second referendum is held.

The most common responses we received were:

  • People thought they had been lied to by all sides in the run up to the original referendum.  Scare tactics and false statistics presented to us all as facts have undermined people’s trust in the arguments that were put forward to support the decision to leave the EU.
  • The classic claim that £350 million per week would go to the NHS was cited by many as something that they felt particularly cheated by.
  • Many commented that they had effectively been voting ‘blind’ in the referendum as no one really knew what would happen next.  The last 2 years in particular have shown that this was certainly the case!
  • A view shared by many was that staying in the EU was preferable to leaving with an incompetent deal that doesn’t best serve the interests of the UK.

What happens now?

There seems to be growing pressure to consider a second referendum, something that is now being actively campaigned for by the Lib Dems and many in the Labour Party.  However, whether the Government will acknowledge the growing support for a new vote remains to be seen.

 

Sources of data

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 1,787 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 23rd - 24th April 2019.  The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). View YouGov Report

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