Two years down the line the negotiations remain in the news on a daily basis. However, the details of a deal with Europe are still to be finalised, leaving the public uncertain over what the actual impact of Brexit will be. This uncertainty has led many to call for a second referendum.
This idea has pushed us into thinking; would people actually vote differently today compared to how they voted two years ago? So we conducted our own mini referendum and asked 12,000 people this question. Below we reveal some of the answers we received.
Out of the 12,000 who took part in our survey, 9.6% of the respondents said they would change their vote if there was a second referendum. Given how close the original vote was, (with a gap of 3.8% between the vote leave and vote remain results) this type of swing could have a significant impact if a second referendum was conducted.
Here are some of the main reasons why people would now change their vote:
One of the most common answers that came up during our research was the fact that people believe they were lied to and feel betrayed by both sides of the Brexit argument.
Without knowing what a deal with the EU would look like, politicians could only make predictions about what was to come depending on the outcome of the vote. People feel they were misled, and both sides used scare tactics. As one respondent stated “I voted leave thinking it would be good for the economy. Now I realise I had been lied to and mislead by project fear”.
One particular example that a number of respondents referred to, was the leave campaign leading us to believe that the money currently going to the EU (£350million per week) could be redirected to the NHS; “I was deceived into believing the NHS would receive the extra £350million”. Two years on from the referendum and there are still no signs that this will happen.
What both campaigns had failed to put across to the public was exactly how hugely complicated the whole situation is, relying instead on simplified messages, designed to appeal to people’s emotions. “I voted leave but would now vote remain. The promises made can't be delivered”.
A large number of the people we surveyed believe that the referendum should have taken place after a deal with the EU was established;
“I would like to vote on the final deal instead of having to try and work it out from all the untruths…”.
A widely shared view from our respondents has been that voting in the Brexit referendum was essentially voting blind, no one really knew the truth and it was difficult to work out which way would have the better outcome; “…we didn't really know what could happen. It was hard to vote at the time.”
Technically speaking, it was probably impossible for any form of negotiations with the EU to take place prior to the vote. However, a lot of people believe that it would have been a much fairer vote as we would have actually understood or had a much better idea about what we were voting for.
Some people who voted to remain, have now said that they would vote to leave after the EU’s treatment of the UK since the Brexit vote “…after seeing the way the EU have tried to scare and threaten us since, I would now vote to leave”.
It seems that it is particularly this treatment by Europe that has led to vote Leavers sticking to their guns and continuing to support Brexit.
Many seem to regard the way that the EU has conducted the negotiations as being a way for Europe to punish the UK for its decision to leave, as well as a warning message to other countries that might consider a similar exit. Recent actions such as the EU threatening to take the UK to court if it doesn’t end a series of tax breaks, illustrate the rising hostilities and explain why a number of our respondents feel that the EU’s actions since the vote have shown them in their true colours.
However, should it really be a surprise that Europe is looking out for its own interests, as the UK would surely also do if the roles were reversed, and is indeed doing in trying to negotiate the best Brexit deal for itself.
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Last updated: 31 January 2019 | © KIS Finance 2018 |