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The Brexit Reality! Would you now vote differently?
KIS Finance

If you were to vote on leaving the EU today, would you vote the same as you did 6 weeks ago?

6 weeks ago the UK voted to leave the EU.

We were wondering if the vote was today how would people vote?

Have people who voted to leave now changed their minds, or indeed have people who voted to remain changed theirs?

Read our summary article and then vote.

(Sorry! this poll is now closed. But here you can see the final poll results.)

The economy

The prediction
Experts agreed that a vote for Brexit would lead to the economy slowing down. The pound would weaken, investors would lose confidence in the UK, and depending on which commentator you listened to, interest rates would either rise or fall.

The reality
So far, it’s all bad. The Bank of England interest rate is predicted to hit zero. Bank lending to businesses has dropped by 1 per cent in a month, says a report by consultancy EY. Manufacturing has been badly hit. According to the latest data from Markit Economics, activity has dropped to its lowest level for three years. Consumer confidence registered an 11-point drop in July on the GfK index, the biggest monthly decline in 26 years.

Exchange Rate

The prediction
A vote for Brexit would lead to a slump in the value of the pound, affecting not just financial and business activity, but the amount of foreign currency British holidaymakers will get to take abroad.

The reality
The immediate effect of the Brexit leave was that the pound dropped to its lowest level in 30 years against the dollar. Inevitably sterling slumped against the Euro currency too. The exchange rate is expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable future.


The prediction
Experts agreed that Brexit would lead to unemployment, in the short term of the next few years at least, with some estimates at around 550,000 UK job losses. But, beneath the headlines, the situation could be complex; with fewer migrant workers available and willing to do unskilled jobs in factories and farms, there could be opportunities for British workers.

The reality
Uncertain, and for many British workers, worrying. In a recent survey for CIPD (Chartered Institute for Professional Development) almost half - 44 per cent - of British staff said that Brexit meant they were now pessimistic about their job security and prospects, with the most-concerned group being young workers aged 25 to 34.

The City

The prediction
The Remain camp argued that jobs would be lost and business would flee abroad if the UK left Europe. HSBC predicted that up to 1,000 workers would be made redundant, and J.P. Morgan said 4,000 jobs could go. Foreign exchange trading would be especially badly hit because trading the Euro would become problematic. Banks would shift their operations to mainland Europe, with Paris and Frankfurt favoured locations. Insurance business would also divert abroad, most probably to the Far East.

The reality
It’s fair to say that the City is still rocked, with fears of job losses not only in financial services but support sectors such as law and PR. However interesting theories are emerging; for instance, some commentators say that with the Euro out of the picture, the Chinese renminbi could emerge as the reserve currency of choice, increasing business between London and Shanghai, and technology and artificial intelligence is increasing at such a rate that in the near future geographical location will become immaterial.


The prediction
Two major concerns here: that the UK will be denied access to the EU’s single market, a free trade area of 500 million people in 28 member states where British goods can be exported without tariffs, therefore boosting our trade and economy; and, the UK has long-benefited from numerous EU-backed international trade agreements which we would be forced to withdraw from.

The reality
Rather early to call on this. After the summer recess in September, Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to start major negotiations to set up trade deals around the world.


Housing market

The prediction
Property experts predicted that in the short term at least house prices would fall if the Leave campaign won. Prime residential markets, especially in London and the South East, where investment is dominated by overseas buyers,were particularly expected to suffer.

The reality
Shares in housebuilding firms, took an immediate dive: Barratt, Persimmon and Berkeley all tumbled more than 20 per cent when the referendum result was announced. And anecdotally, estate agents report that buyers concerned about job prospects are pulling out of deals. Over the longer term, the outlook is more uncertain: recent data from the Nationwide suggests UK property prices were actually up 0.5 per cent in July compared with June. What is likely to affect the market most pertinently in coming months is the willingness of banks to lend on mortgage finance.


The prediction
Not one Leave campaigner put an actual figure on what net immigration would be reduced to if the UK left the EU – they only promised to bring it “under control”. However, a coalition of Brexit supporters, including UKIP and Michael Gove, suggested that an Australian-style points system could be introduced, curtailing the automatic right of any EU national to come to the UK to work.

The reality
It’s likely that EU nationals from other countries already resident in the UK will be allowed to stay. UKIP’s line is that anyone who registered for a National Insurance number should have their residence rights guaranteed. Experts say that during the negotiations to leave, free movement of EU workers will be likely to continue, although what will happen once the UK is independent remains uncertain.

Hate crimes

The prediction
Although immigration was a major issue in the EU referendum, it’s fair to say that no side of the campaign anticipated a rise in hate crimes against those who have come to the UK from abroad.

The reality
Cases of hate crimes have risen by at least 57 per cent, post-Brexit vote, according to the National Police Chiefs’ Council. In the four days sampled in June, there were 85 instances of attacks or abuse, compared with 54 instances for the same period four weeks previously.


The prediction
The Leave campaign claimed that up to 70 per cent of British laws have some connection with European legislation – although it is difficult to put a figure on exactly how many. Many Brexit supporters gave the impression that once the UK leaves, we will regain entire control over our laws and legal system.

The reality
However, legislation is so complicated and diverse, affecting so many areas of life, from the household goods we buy to property ownership, untangling what jurisdiction the EU will still have - or not - will take years. Also, any company doing business with EU countries is very likely to have to abide by the EU laws already in place.

Renegotiating EU exit

The prediction
Negotiating our exit would take years, cost the British taxpayer money, and divert the government away from the important business of running the country and sorting out vital areas such as the NHS, education and Trident.

The reality
Eurosceptic David Davis has been appointed Secretary of State for Leaving the EU. He says the UK should trigger Article 50 and notify the EU of our intention to leave by the beginning of 2017. Meanwhile, we have to continue paying our contribution to EU funds, which is still a substantial chunk of our national income.

We will publish the final results very soon, please check back with us to see them, or Like us on Facebook or Follow us on Twitter to be notified when they have been published.


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Maureen - Always look on the bright side of life. Theresa may still be able to negotiate our entrance into the Eurovision Song Contest.

Jim - I voted remain but in hindsight, I am pleased that we are leaving as it will enable us to maintain a tighter control of our borders. Germany's decision to invite millions of Jihadis into Europe has been a disaster and atrocities will become the new norm !

Gil - The fact that Brexit is responsible for London house prices falling is worrying. . . . . . It would be an utter disgrace if the fall in property prices meant that working class riff raff such as nurses and public service workers could actually get on the ladder . . . .

barry - Because of many things, this biased website for instance, Sovereign issues, if I dont like my goverment, I vote against.what hope of me removing eu commisioners, none. Six countries in accesion talks, all with two similarities, not our religion and much poorer, can you guarantee our safety, no. But what do I know, I thought I was just an average guy, but now from remain, I am a bigot, racist and uneducated. Get over it , you lost.

Aidan - A rather biased account of the current situation. - Fails to mention the benefits of a weaker currency (increasing exports, overdue rebalancing the balance of payments) - Fails to consider the multitude of countries that have requested a start to negotiations over free trade deals. USA/India/China/AUS/CAN/NZL/JAPAN - Generally overlooks the predictions for real output. I.E UK output looks to rise faster than main EU countries. Lending us even more bargaining power in the EU negotiations. - Also conveniently forgets the rise in investment that we have seen. I.E Japanese purchase of ARM.

PH - You didn't have a box for 'would have liked to vote, but was disenfranchised due to the fact that I live overseas, even though I earn all my money in the UK, have my savings there, and my pension'. There are about 700,000 of us in that position.

Richard - I doubt that anybody who spouts such patently racist drivel would really have voted Remain on June 23rd. I think Leavers are very scared of losing their slim majority once the true scale of 'Bregret' becomes clear. Only way to settle this is a second referendum.

Chris - I voted remain and would still vote remain. I think it was the right choice for the continued growth of the economy and that Brexit has already caused multiple problems.

Tony - The Referendum had no threshold and was a 'pig in a poke' choice. I bet the patriots who voted Leave didn't realize it would probably mean no more United Kingdom, no more Union Flag, and no control over immigration if we end up with a Norway-type association, and if Scotland (which voted Remain) leaves the UK and Northern Ireland (which also voted Remain) reunites with the South. Any new Referendum should spell out ALL these consequences and set a threshold for a Leave vote.

David - Proud Remain voter with my very own conspiracy theory (but no tinfoil hat). Like Cameron, May is determined not to go down in history as the idiot who pulled the Article 50 trigger and blew the UK away. But she can't simply say 'It's a daft idea, I'm not going it' without smashing the Tory Party for a generation. So she's waiting for us all to have a lousy Brexit Christmas, then in the New Year it'll be a. a snap election and/or b. a vote in parliament to decide the issue. With luck (for her) the Tory right will be chastened by then. Of course this means putting party before country, but hey, Tories right?

stewart - To leave the Eutopean union is an act of the most stupid folly by people who do not have the interlect to understand what damage they have done and the harm to this countries long term fututre. I am not saying that all people that voted leave were stupid, racist and xenophobic..but all people that are stupid racist and xenophobic did..

Brian - I voted remain. Subsequent events have proved to me that I was right to do so. The leave campaign told the country a pack of lies and unfortunately people were gullible enough to believe them.We will all now suffer the consequences

BERTRAM - It's too soon (wait 3 or 6 months) to have any indication of whether Brexit had a good or bad effect.

Colin - What a stupid, biased article. The results of Brexit cannot begin be measured after 6 weeks, let's wait a couple of years and then ask this question. One thing that is for sure, the vast majority of the doom and gloom predictions prior to the vote have patently failed to materialise. The only relevant question has always been: If you were to vote to join the EU tomorrow how would you vote? No one with an ounce of sense would vote to join this shambles (unless you had a third world economy and you were joining for the handouts). Countries around the world are already jostling to be first to sign trade deals with us and when it comes to the crunch the EU will not risk their own export markets with the UK, deals will be done. The future's bright, the future's world wide trade.

Judith - Hello, this is probably the worst analysis of brexit I have seen. Typical of the lies we were told before the referendum. I beleive in the EU but following all the BS put about by the Remain camp, I am not a remain voter now.

Jeffrey - All the scare story's have proved to be just that scare story`s

Ben - I am a `leave` voter, as are many of my family and friends. I feel that the vote to leave the EU has been vindicated in view of the support of the Bank of England, and many countries and companies that are in full support of Brexit. WE are a proud and successful country and will prosper on our own. All we need is for all the scaremongers to stop running the country down and support the vote of the majority in the UK.

Kevin - I voted remain because I believe in Europe. We are far better as a community of friends than just as trading competitors.

julian - The economy is reacting negatively and so are side issues like medical research. This was a STUPID decision and remains a stupid decision . It will take 10 years to sort out and for what ? So we can become nationalist about Britain . Nationalism started ALL the European wars .

Terry - The EU is on a collision course for disaster. Best to jump ship now before we get dragged down with it.

John - I voted Leave, since the referendum, I am even more convinced it was the right vote and if it happened again, I would be even more vocal with my acquaintances to vote Leave Good result for Britain, a carefully planned and executed Brexit will see us as a nation go from strength to strength

Andrew - The Best thing this country could ever do get out of the EU !! and leave them to it ... We will be free to do as we will without Brussels elite interfering !! Well Done Britain for voting "LEAVE" . Will someone tell Scotland we are OUT !!

Andy - Just back from Copenhagen wonderful relaxed cosmopolitan European city at ease with itself, feels like a world we have turned our back on for little England (Trumpton)

Dave - The scare stories have so far mostly proven true - falling pound and house prices, companies moving overseas, manufacturing cutting investment, interest rates falling as the Bank of England desperately tries to hold off another recession, political turmoil, Scotland reconsidering leaving the UK, Gibraltar and Northern Ireland's future uncertain, the world mocking us, our former European allies like Poland and France looking to punish us. And the Brexiters? Caught out for their lies on NHS spending, decreasing immigration, and cutting bureaucracy, frightened to trigger Article 50, stabbing one another in the back in the Tories and UKIP and the biggest laughing stock of all parading around the world as Foreign Secretary being ridiculed. So much for a free, prosperous and influential post-Brexit future.

anne - I voted to leave and would vote to leave again, not because I am a 'racist' or a 'little Englander' but because we are a sovereign country, I want us to make our own laws and our MPs to work for what they earn

ron - I voted leave, and would do so again

Michael - As someone, who has worked for the EU previously, I am Pro Europe, but anti EU. I voted to leave and would do so again. The entire idea of a Federal Europe is disastrous and it will collapse. The UK will still trade with Europe, but become far more global in it's outlook and begin to trade far more with the 7 billion people around the world in countries that are not in the EU, and that are growing at a far faster rate than the stagnant economies of most countries in the EU.

Derek - Pursue brexit enthusiastically, don't even bother with article 50, repeal the 1972 act, do not enter into any negotiations regarding the single market, just walk away & lets throw ourselves into trade agreements with all the countries queueing up to deal with us. Until Brexit is a done deal the country will be devided & undermined!

Sheila - I think we should invoke article 50 NOW and stop the incessant whinging of the remain voters to have a second referendum because we didn't vote the way they wanted us to. I voted leave and would vote leave again and campaign hard to ensure we got Brexit again. If we do have a second referendum it will prove that democracy in this country is well and truly dead.

B - Following today's announcement from The Bank of England I wonder how many of the people who voted to leave will regret there actions due to the impending reccession, job losses, falling house prices and salary freezes to come.

Tony - Italy is preparing a €40bn rescue of its financial system as bank shares collapse on the Milan bourse. In addition the Deutsche Bank one of Germanys biggest is close to meltdown. This is just the start of the total implosion of the EU. Those who voted remain want Britain to be part of that ?

Ray - Like Michael, I love Europe. I even admire the original principles that went into the the precursors of the EU. It was only in 2011 that I became convinced that the EU was irredeemable, and that therefore we had, with regret, to leave. I understood that there would be some short-term and mid-term downside risks to this, but in my evaluation, these were worth running in order to restore democratic accountability. After the event, it seems that the downsides have been slightly less than I anticipated, and an order of magnitude less than the remain spokespeople would have had us believe.

Alan - Brexit, if it ever happens, will be an unmitigated disaster. This country is over it's head in debt, the average person is over their head in debt and we have little chance of getting out of it. The last time the country was in this much debt was just after the end of the Second World War and it took us 60 years to pay it off and that was with the benefit of all our industries (that have now been sold to foreign owners so all the profits disappear to tax havens). As for trading with the rest of the world, what do we make anymore? Our major earner seems to be financial services, but after years of "light touch regulation" there has been so much fraud and price fixing that British financial institutions are regarded as crooks and robbers so that avenue is going down the pan. As a simple test I would ask if the UK's future outside the EU is so rosy, why is it our currency that is collapsing?

Gwyndaf - I'm proud of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the corrupt, anti-Christian, doomed EU.

A - I am firstly a European and secondly British. Churchill fully supported the European project so that Europe would never descended onto conflict again. Congratulations you British bunch of short sughted inwars looking idiots for undoing 50 years of peace and prosperity with your narrow minded selfish and inward looking attitude. Congratulations for taking away the opportunities if the brightest and best in the next generation to travel work and study in 27 culturally diverse and enlightened countries. The young want to stay in the European Union so even if you get your way and we leave, they will ensure we rejoin in 10 years time so it will all be for nothing.

Chris - I voted Leave . The idea of many different countries of different cultures being ruled by an umbrella country as peas in a pod passed a long time back .UK dissembled its empire but the idea of again becoming part of a superstate is beyond stupid . I am of Polish decent but British first Europeans are not the same as British believe me!

Jay - Based on feedback from my English social entourage whom wanted to "leave", their rationale was that (1)the EU was broken and that it needed to be fixed, (2) Any rules under British law can be overruled by EU law, (3) there should be an immigration control (in a way that it would not deny access to EU citizens but to control the situation in a more suitable manner). Feedback from the Remain campaigners from what I have gathered from my entourage was the economic, the friendly rapport between UK and the EU neighbourhood, families outside UK, and allies etc. I'm not taking any side, what is done is done, it's time to move forward in this challenging occurrence. Just to acknowledge though that this referendum was based on lies and manipulation and those who acted on such act are not deserved to be part of a British society. In my humble opinion, all they had to state were the benefits and the drawbacks of such situation,be honest and truthful (i.e. for instance here is what is going to happen if we stay and here is what is going to happen if we leave) and if we look at those "people" who were determined to campaign leave, they are all gone (No comments). My personal feeling is that I know Britain will recover but at what cost?

M - maybe Churchill fully supported the European project I personally did not like him but one thing I am sure of he was a true brit and proud of his country and if he was in power today we would not have needed to vote he would have had us out long ago as he would not have let Brussels take away our powers as for the young in ten years they may have matured enough to think about what we voted for and I bet they would vote leave we here a lot of how brexit lied but they didn't it was the remain who lied and threatened this country could be back on its feet if we left now but its the remain who can not accept democracy you have got people trying to stop us leaving the eu if it does then it will be remains fault when the UK is taken over completely

darren - i voted leave and would gladly do so again i saw someone on here say all the scare stories are true lmao mate you neeed to actually check the information you are believing yes the pound fell but it's recovery is well on it's way fuel prices are now dropping as the panick drops to a lower ebb this country will make a superb recovery from leaving the corrupt EU and we would do better to close our borders because a tragic event like they had in france is only a matter of time.

N - I voted Remain and would do so again. There is no evidence that it will be possible to negotiate the combination of outcomes that Leave voters want.

John - The fall in the pound, stock market wavering and pause in investment is due to the uncertainty and is no worse than anticipated. Once the decision to leave is implemented the uncertainty should ease. How can a desire to trade globally rather than in the protectionist EU be considered inward looking? How can allowing controlled global immigration rather than granting special rights to just EU citizens be considered nationalist?

Roy - I am 100% European. By accident of birth I hold British nationality. If the UK does leave the EU I will sell up and move to Northern France taking my on-line business with me.

Nick - Like Lemmings the Leave supporters are taking us over the cliff. There will be no new referendum but wake up and realise that the economy is nose diving which is going to plunge the UK, which was recently the strongest growing economy in the G7, into recession while the global trend is the opposite and most forecasts are now back to 2009 recession levels. There will be a tough 'Autumn Economic Statement' (eg Budget) because there is no alternative with the dramatic downward trends, borrowing will have to go up, Companies will start downsizing (they already are) pensions will get smaller (interest rates are going down), investment has just about come to a halt, wages will get lower or go up slower (as smaller companies struggle for business), house prices are falling threatening negative equity! Little Britain will be in catch-up mode for years (at least 10) meaning your children and grandchildren are going to suffer as today's opportunities outside the UK are barred to them as they try to find work, and it has only been 44 days since the vote. Well done Leave campaigners but at least 'Britain will be for the British', your referendum war cry (or was it 'we are sick of listening to experts'? - we just want to believe the gross lies, deceit and racism from the Leave campaign leaders who all deserted their posts leaving their country to its fate, and still we see these idiots saying it was the best decision ever.

Ray - Perhaps if the British people stopped reading the lies peddled by the Mail, Telegraph, Sun and Express (all owned by tax dodging multi-millionaires who really don't care for the average person), and started reading what the rest of the world is saying about Brexit and the current state of the UK economy, a few more would change their mind about leaving. Unfortunately though they won't. Most people hate being proved wrong, and hate it even more when they realise they have been sold a pup. It's a lot easier to shut your eyes and ears, poke the tounge out and blame it on something else.

michael - Voted leave would do again that's it.

James - Typical biased media reporting here. No mention of the fact that we were told that the stock market would plummet, whereas in fact it's up 5 or 6%.

Catherine - I am really excited about leaving the EU, I think we have more opportunities to succeed and prosper as a country. I just wish we could get on with it and stop the uncertainty.

M - Only the media and their chrones the remoaners cannot see the benifits already coming through,of course nothing concrete can happen until May gets her finger out (if she ever does) and start the withdrwal process.For the benifit of all who love Europe,we have NOT left Europe it's people,culture ect.BUT voted to leave the corrupt European Union.totally different.

Mark - I voted Leave and would do so again without a moment's hesitation. Judging on the comments above from Remain voters, they still don't grasp that the vast majority of Leavers are not stupid, racist or little Englanders; most of us can see the trajectory the EU is hell-bent on taking, and deem it to risky to Remain. If the EU is so wonderful, how come all the major economic indicators clearly show it is being comfortably outperformed as a bloc by non-EU European countries? As for the Eurozone, this has been an unmitigated disaster, particularly for Southern Europe - for those trumpeting all the "lost opportunities" for the young caused by Brexit, I suggest looking at the youth unemployment rates of Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc to get a real grasp of "lost opportunity". The arrogance and hubris of the EU leaders, particularly with the EURO vanity project, has condemned an entire generation to the scrapheap. As for the devaluing of the pound, which is the one thing Remoaners are clinging to (and no doubt are desperate to get worse!), the pound was over valued in the first place. There are positives to a weaker pound, as you well know, and things will settle down over time. As a senior manager in a company trading nationally and internationally, I've certainly not seen the predicted catastrophe, and there is a strong feeling of optimism in my sector!

Neil - Voted leave before and would vote leave again in a heartbeat. Other than the pound falling (which economists say was overdue to happen anyway) none of the project fear predictions have come true. On the contrary we now have 27 countries wanting open trade deals with us, eight of them being in the top ten economies also a lot of new investment has come into the UK bringing jobs. I just wish they would get on with the exit process as we need to be able to quickly remove the hate preachers from the UK without the ECJ interfering and I hope we're out before we are forced to help bail out the failing banks in Italy and Germany thus subsidising a continent that refuses to live within its means.

Martin - If we leave (and I suspect that economic circumstances will prevent us doing so) then we will have an interim when we are not in the EU, nor yet in WTO, and we will be taking decades to negotiate all these promised trade deals. With only a 60 million market, the pressure to come agreement with us will not be that pressing and we don't have the experts to do it anyway. If we borrow trade negotiators, will they have our interests at heart? Brexit is a total disaster, it threatens my children and grandchildren. I don't believe the EU is finished as many state here, on the contrary it is an organisation that has shown remarkable survival skills and has countries that remember what it was like when the countries were fighting each other rather than building together. It has developed its democratic checks and balances - in many ways it has more than our own Government - these claims of democratic illegitimacy are lies, simply that, peddled by those who should know better. I voted remain, will do so again if a second (and I think inevitable) referendum takes place when the terms of any Brexit are clear. Remember access to the single market and limits free movement are not available as a combined option if we leave - it would need unanimity and enough EU members have made it clear that that would not be an option. For a start, what interest has Poland got in that result? It will be right out or staying in. I will be taking up my right to German nationality for my and my children, as will many of my brothers' and sisters' families. We are ashamed of our country. If you oppose Brexit, get lobbying. You need to be as loud mouthed and emotional as the Leavers. F or a start sign the petitions to Parliament. and

Dave - My only regret about voting leave in the referendum is that I was unable to record 10 leave votes. Every negative effect has been reported enthusiastically by the BBC while every positive sign such as the soaring stock market has been conspicuously ignored. Osborne and the IMF have also been busily backtracking from all the lies they pedled

Jeremy - I voted to Leave and would again now. The undemocratic nature of the EU was the main factor in my decision. Having an unelected, unaccountable (and in Juncker's case, "drunk") elite dictating the laws for our country, which allow us no recourse to appeal, is just madness. In the UK, if we disagree with the way the country is being run, we have the option to vote out the Government. We had no such option with the EU. I am convinced the majority in this country made the right decision to Vote Leave. We just have to make sure that Theresa May honours her promise to ensure we do leave the EU and soon.

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